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Are you a good bullshit detector?
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- Review
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Question 1 of 13
1. Question
Does belief in the effects of a treatment influence the likelihood that those effects will be experienced?
Click any that are true
Correct
In addition to this video by Ben Goldacre, you may like to watch this video on the research done by American schoolgirl Emily Rosa and you might like to read more about fair measurement of treatment outcomes.
Incorrect
You may like to watch this video by schoolgirl Emily Rosa and you might like to read more about fair measurement of treatment outcomes.
Hint
Have you ever felt better after visiting a kind doctor, even though you haven’t started taking the medicine he or she prescribed for you? You might like to watch this video by Ben Goldacre discussing placebo effects.
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Question 2 of 13
2. Question
In a study to assess the effects of a new antiviral agent for flu-like illness, 100 people were given the new drug.
One week later the researchers observed that 90 of the 100 people were better.
What were the researchers justified in concluding?
Tick any justified conclusions
Correct
From this study, we don’t know whether they would have got better even without the treatment. Hence a “fair test” generally needs a comparison, or “control”, group of patients. Read more about “Nature – the Healer“.
Incorrect
From this study, we don’t know whether they would have got better even without the treatment. Hence a “fair test” generally needs a comparison, or “control”, group of patients. Read more about “Nature – the Healer“.
Hint
Consider what would happen if the 100 people had had no treatment.
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Question 3 of 13
3. Question
Placebos are useful in clinical trials:
(Tick any that are true)
Hint
Seeing can lead to believing; but believing can also lead to seeing. Consider Point 3 in this video.
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Question 4 of 13
4. Question
In a small randomized double-blind trial of a new treatment for heart attacks, the number of patients receiving the new treatment who died was half the number who died in the comparison group, but the difference was not statistically significant.
Tick any that are true
Hint
Have you heard of ‘the law of large numbers’? You can find out more about it in Taking account of the play of chance.
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Question 5 of 13
5. Question
When you are checking whether a review of research on a specific treatment is trustworthy, which questions should you ask?
Tick any that are true
Hint
Consider the message in this cartoon.
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Question 6 of 13
6. Question
What should you believe when some fair tests of a treatment suggest one thing about its effects and other fair tests suggest different effects?
Tick all that are true
Hint
Is it ever right to base your conclusions about the effects of a treatment on a single, or even several studies when many have been done?
If you would like to read relevant material before answering, read more about systematic reviews of all the relevant, reliable evidence.
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Question 7 of 13
7. Question
In a placebo-controlled trial of new drug, Kuritol, 8% of those allocated to Kuritol died compared to 12% allocated to the placebo.
There are different ways to compare the survival in the two groups. Can you work out which is correct?
The difference in the likelihood of death for patients given Kuritol is:
Correct
12 percent minus 8 percent equals 4 percent.
Incorrect
12 percent minus 8 percent equals 4 percent.
Hint
What is the difference between the two percentages of patients who died?
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Question 8 of 13
8. Question
In a placebo-controlled trial of new drug, Kuritol, 8% of those allocated to Kuritol died compared to 12% allocated to the placebo.
The relative reduction in the likelihood of death with Kuritol is:
Correct
12 percent minus 8 percent equals 4 percent, and 4 is one third (33 percent) of 12.
Incorrect
12 percent minus 8 percent equals 4 percent, and 4 is one third (33 percent) of 12.
Hint
Express the reduction (4 percent) as a proportion of the death rate without Kuritol.
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Question 9 of 13
9. Question
If you’re invited to participate in research to test treatments, which of these conditions should you insist be met before you decide whether or not to participate?
Tick any that are true
Hint
If you would like to read relevant material before answering, have a look at the Testing Treatments Action Plan.
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Question 10 of 13
10. Question
A new fish oil derivative is believed to slow brain aging and prevent dementia, but more studies are needed. Which of the following studies would you find convincing enough?
A trial in genetically identical mice shows that the maze navigating abilities of mice given the fish oil supplement decline much less than those given usual diet only.
Correct
Correct!
Incorrect
No. Mice are not people. Read this example of how we can be misled by putting too much store by the results of animal testing without subsequent confirmation in human trials.
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Question 11 of 13
11. Question
A new fish oil derivative is believed to slow brain aging and prevent dementia, but more studies are needed. Which of the following studies would you find convincing enough?
A trial in older people shows that the brain scans (Magnetic Resonance Imaging – MRI) of those given the fish oil supplement show much less aging damage than those given usual diet only.
Correct
Correct!
Incorrect
Not necessarily. Brain scans are a surrogate outcome that don’t address what matters to patients, such as quality of life or memory loss.
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Question 12 of 13
12. Question
A new fish oil derivative is believed to slow brain aging and prevent dementia, but more studies are needed. Which of the following studies would you find convincing enough?
A trial in older people shows that the memory tests of those given the fish oil supplement show much less decline than those given usual diet only.
Correct
Correct.
Incorrect
Incorrect. There’s a good chance that memory function tests reflect a valid outcome that matters to patients.
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Question 13 of 13
13. Question
A new fish oil derivative is believed to slow brain aging and prevent dementia, but more studies are needed. Which of the following studies would you find convincing enough?
Countries where people eat more fish have lower rates of dementia than countries where people eat less fish.
Correct
Incorrect
No, there could be all sorts of things that might reduce the incidence of dementia other than the amount of fish people eat. Maybe they die from choking on fish bones before they get a chance to develop dementia!
Jargon buster
About GET-IT
GET-IT provides plain language definitions of health research terms